MODELLING THE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC PASSENGER TRANSPORT SERVICES IN BULGARIA

Todor Razmov; Lyubomir Klyambarski

Scientific paper ID 964 : 2014/3

MODELLING THE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC PASSENGER TRANSPORT SERVICES IN BULGARIA

Todor Razmov, Lyubomir Klyambarski

A transport model of the demand for public passenger transport services in the Republic of Bulgaria is proposed in the article. The model is focused on the two competing public passenger transport services – rail services and bus services. The first three steps of the classic four-step transport model, trip generation, trip distribution and modal split, are examined. The factors affecting trip generation are defined using multiple regression analysis. A gravity model is designed for the second step of the transport model (trip distribution). Different types of deterrence functions and calibration techniques are compared. It is proposed a new form of the deterrence function also. The mode choice is examined using binary logit model, taking into account four important factors affecting the choice of mode – travel time, speed, frequency and fare. It is proposed travel demand segmentation into distance- difference groups in order to improve the modelling results and the accuracy of the model.

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генериране на пътувания матрица на пътуванията (O-D) модален сплит транспортен модел транспортно търсене моделиране на трафика прогнозиране на трафикаtrips generation origin – destination matrix modal split transport model transport demand traTodor Razmov Lyubomir Klyambarski

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