ANALYSIS OF DELAYS OF FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRAINS ON THE RAILWAY NETWORK OF BULGARIA

Kiril Karagyozov; Mirena Todorova

Scientific paper ID 962 : 2014/3

ANALYSIS OF DELAYS OF FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRAINS ON THE RAILWAY NETWORK OF BULGARIA

Kiril Karagyozov, Mirena Todorova

The analysis of random variables – train delays due to various reasons (infrastructure, carrier, external influences) is based on processing of statisticsdata available on the number and duration of failures. The statistics data for these reasons are available in an aggregate form, making it necessary to develop a model for the evaluation of the failure duration. The probability dependencies (well-known in the Theory of Probabilities) of central moments of a random variable, which is a sum of random number of independently distributed random variables, are used. This approach makes it possible to find the mean value and variance of the duration of failure /delay/ and these two features can be used to approximate the unknown distribution of the duration of failure by Gamma distribution.

• Reload article • Open/Download as PDF

сума на случайни променливи вероятностно разпределение сумата на случайна променлива анализ на данни от закъсненияprobability distribution sum of random variable data analysis of delaysKiril Karagyozov Mirena Todorova

BIBLIOGRAPHY

[1] Venttsel E.S., Ovcharov, zadachi i uprazhneniya po teorii veroyatnostey, Moskwa,2003
( [1] Вентцель Е.С., Овчаров, задачи и упражнения по теории вероятностей, Moskwa,2003 )

[2] Dvustranen protokol mezhdu Upravitelya na zhelezopatnata infrastruktura i Prevozvacha BDZh, 2012 g.
( [2] Двустранен протокол между Управителя на железопътната инфраструктура и Превозвача БДЖ, 2012 г. )

[3] Taylor H.,Karlin S., An introduction to stochastics modeling 3-rd edition

[4] Tijms H.C., A first course in stochastic models, WILEY, 2003,