Scientific paper ID 881 : 2013/3

Modern information and technical systems for ensuring the safety of the operation of potentially dangerous objects are a set of various man-machine systems, where processes take place with the participation of the person under his control and direction. When ensuring the safety utmost attention must be paid to the human factor, primarily in the field of the safe operation. In this aspect, this paper discusses the problem of providing effective operational diagnostics and preventive control of the functional state of ergatic complex systems and their components in the process of operation. A model is being proposed for managing the reliability of a complex man-machine system based on the data obtained from the prophylactic control of conditions and indicators of the performance of human and machine components formed by conversion of the most common situational model of the system based on the semiotic basis of situational management. The functioning of the system is represented as a process of change in the conditions of the analyzed system under managing, correcting, prophylactic, etc. impacts, that are considered as such for the generated system on the extreme intervals T, where T is the time of operation as defined by the prophylaxis period, and for the operator – time on duty. In this scenario, based on the proposed situational-probabilistic model the problem about the management system "man-machine" and its components is solved by predicting the probabilistic characteristics of functioning according to statistics from the preventive control, adjusted at each step of the forecast.