Scientific paper ID 863 : 2013/3

In modern business processes protecting confidential information is important the component of the activity related to develop, support and managing the information technology. In this paper the measures proposed for forecasting quantity characteristics of the risk associated with the protection of confidential information in analytical systems of different designation Central to the these issues occupy tasks to select options for scenario planned alternatives, strategies, plans, etc., optimal with respect to one or another criterion. In the scientific literature on these problems exist noticeable differences between working with theory considered logical foundations of the choice axiomatics, general principles of coherence and rationality, and most applicable works are dedicated to construction of of specific models and procedures in significant part heuristicstical and applied nature

In this situation of extreme topicality are questions about develop and systematization of theoretically justified methods capable of serving as a methodological basis for solving practical problems. Is thus intended of the proposed work is to propose an approach for prediction of quality characteristics of the risk in taking decisions relating to the protection of confidential information in analytical systems. Received assessments of projected levels of risk at impact on Confidenciality information to its devaluation as well as of the effectiveness of its protection, allowing to track down regularities of strategic behavior of the entities involved pursuing conflicting objectives.