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Scientific paper ID 817 : 2013/3
FORECASTING OF THE FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN THE COMPANIES OF TRANSPORT SECTOR
Emilia Vaisilova In contemporary environment of global economic and financial crisis, companies within the transport sector in Bulgaria are experiencing increasing financial difficulties. This gives raise to probability of companies’ insolvency and as a result of this their bankruptcy. To avoid these adverse situations, managers should continually analyze and evaluate the degree of financial risk. This report examines one of the possible ways of measuring financial risk, which uses Z-score forecasting model. This method provides capability to prognosticate future problems and predict company’s bankruptcy up to two years of its operation.
финансов риск платежоспособност финансови затруднения прогнозиране Z-резултат модел за анализfinancial risk solvency financial difficulties forecasting Z-score method of analysisEmilia Vaisilova BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] Bafet, M., D. Klark. Uoran Bafet i analizat na finansovi otcheti (prevod ot angl. ezik), Izdatelstvo „Iztok – Zapad”, S., 2011 ( [1] Бъфет, М., Д. Кларк. Уорън Бъфет и анализът на финансови отчети (превод от англ. език), Издателство „Изток – Запад”, С., 2011 ) [2] Kotlar, F., D. A. Kaslione. Haotika: Menidzhmant i marketing v epohata na Turbulentnostta, „Lokus pablishing” EOOD, Abagar AD, S., 2009 ( [2] Котлър, Ф., Д. А. Каслионе. Хаотика: Мениджмънт и маркетинг в епохата на Турбулентността, „Локус пъблишинг” ЕООД, Абагар АД, С., 2009 ) [3] Mateev, M. Analiz i otsenka na riska pri izbor na investitsionni resheniya, Universitetsko izdatelstvo „Stopanstvo”, S., 2000 ( [3] Матеев, М. Анализ и оценка на риска при избор на инвестиционни решения, Университетско издателство „Стопанство”, С., 2000 ) [4] Beaver W.H. Financial Rations and Predictions of Failure. Empirical Research in Accounting Selected Studies, Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research, 1966 [5] Jorion, P. Financial Risk Manager Handbook. J. Wiley Publishing, N.Y., 2003. [6] Vaysilova E., “Application of the Z-skore metod to analise and estimate financial risk in enterprises”, Zilina, 2 – 3 june 2010 |
