Scientific paper ID 480 : 2010/2

The provision of a safe and reliable transport system is of great importance. Operational experience gained in Bulgaria and abroad has clearly shown that this problem is becoming more acute. It may be attributed to the most serious and complex problems of modernity, as the reliability of the transport process depends not only on the normal functioning of technical equipment (rolling stock, interlocking systems, permanent way, etc.) but also on proper behavior of operational personnel (including the optimal level of coordination between the characteristics of the human operator and the technical equipment). In other words, the respective technical (machine) system (designed to perform specific operations regarding the management of the operational process) in a mode of transport is one component on which traffic safety depends. The human operator (dispatcher, train driver, traffic manager, car driver) is the other component, who is in a continuous interaction with the machine (station interlocking system, dispatcher system, locomotive etc.).

The last few decades have shown a specific interest in issues related to the analysis, modeling and evaluation of the behavior of man-machine systems (including transport ones). This has led to an increased number of studies, researches and publications. But it should be noted that a significant number are dedicated to solving single (individual) problems. Modern times and the peculiarities of the technical operation of transport require a complex solution of the problem. This paper proposes an integrated analytical approach and a model for analysis of man-machine systems designed for management of the operational process in different transport modes.

Based on State-space Analysis (Markov Analysis), this article presents an analytical approach and a model for safety analysis and assessment of man-machine systems operating in the management of the transport process. Actual data from technical operations are used to determine the safety indicators in respect of a particular type of railway man-machine system (interlocking system-man). The developed model is universal and can be used with respect of many types of transport man-machine systems when the required data is available.