Научен доклад ID 2554 : 2024/3

In early 2020, one of the important consequences of the pandemic was the change in global supply chains. Another change is the attacks of the Houthis in Yemen on cargo ships in the Red Sea.

In maritime transport, the Red Sea route carries about 15% of the world`s maritime traffic. While it is a vital transport link between Europe and Asia, many companies have suspended the use of this route. Ships travelling around the southern tip of Africa add about 10 days to a typical container ship`s journey, increasing costs, affecting spot prices and creating uncertainty in freight rates and schedules. This alternative causes delays to their customers. Not attacking Russian and Chinese ships that continue to use the Suez Canal has created a competitive advantage for these countries.

The Caspian Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor (Middle Corridor), which starts from Turkey, goes through the Caucasus region, then across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, then to Central Asia and China, constitutes one of the most important components of the project to revive the historical Silk Road. China`s investment in the Belt and Road countries increased by 80 per cent in 2023 compared to 2022, and the investment in 2023 was approximately 50 billion dollars.

Starting from Turkey, the Central Corridor extends by rail and road links to Georgia, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea, respectively, and from there to China by following the route of Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan (using the Caspian passage). In this framework, the ports of Baku/Alat (Azerbaijan), Aktau/Kuryk (Kazakhstan) and Turkmenistan are used for combined transport in the Caspian Transit.

If the Central Corridor route is used effectively, Central Asian countries will be able to gain economic opportunities from the Europe-China trade traffic, which currently amounts to USD 600 billion annually. The Red Sea crisis may also support exports from the USA.

In this study, to what extent will the Central Corridor contribute to Turkey and the EU`s supply chain if it is used effectively in transport? This has been investigated.